The Delphi Technique
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
It's a common observation to say that when you get three experts
together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.
This is particularly the case in areas such as resource allocation and
forecasting where the conclusion reached depends on a number of
subjective assessments.
In cases like these, arguments can quickly become passionate,
and disagreement can often become intensely personal and bitter.
More than this, in face-to-face discussion, situations of groupthink can occur. Here (for example) the eccentric views of
early or charismatic speakers can achieve undue prominence as the
group seeks to find consensus. This can lead to poor decision
making.
This is where a technique like the Delphi Method is needed to
reach a properly thought-through consensus among experts.
How to Use the Tool
The Delphi Method works through a number of cycles of anonymous
written discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator.
Participants in the process do not meet, or even necessarily know
who else is involved: the facilitator controls the process, and
manages the flow and consolidation of information.
The anonymity and remoteness of the process helps to avoid issues
of groupthink and personality conflict. More than this, it gives
people time to think issues through properly, critique arguments
rigorously and contribute fully.
The editing of responses by a facilitator means that inflammatory
interventions can be toned down and input can be consolidated
efficiently. And the iterative approach means that arguments can
be refined and tested until they are robust and fully-considered.
To use the technique, use the following steps:
Clearly define the problem to be solved.
Appoint a facilitator or chairperson with the skills and integrity
needed to manage the process properly and impartially (the rest of
this process assumes you are this person).
Select a panel of experts with the depth and breadth of knowledge,
and proven good judgment needed for effective analysis of the
problem.
Get individual panel members to brainstorm high level approaches
that might be used to solving the problem.
Consolidate responses, and iteratively resubmit these to the panel
until a stable and comprehensive list of approaches has been
developed.
Check with the process sponsor that all possible solutions to the
problem have been identified and that no approaches have been
missed.
Work with individual panel members to develop each of the possible
solutions to the problem.
Consolidate these possible solutions, and send them out to all
panel members.
Panel members then critique solutions, and feed their comments
back to the facilitator.
The facilitator and panel members refine proposals or, if
appropriate, discard them.
This goes on (iterating back to step 7) until a stable analysis of
options has been conducted and a final conclusion has been
reached.
Tip 1:
This is a time consuming technique and a lengthy process, and as
such should only be used for decisions with major consequences.
However, techniques like this are needed for large-scale
decisions: Without them there's firstly a real risk that the
wrong decision will be made and, secondly, even good decisions
can be undermined with misplaced criticism.
Tip 2:
As a facilitator, you'll speed the process by setting clear and
appropriate deadlines for feedback. However take care not to
give undue weight to early submissions – this is far too easy to
do!
Tip 3:
Beware: The Delphi Technique puts a huge amount of power in the
hands of the facilitator. A crooked or biased facilitator can
manipulate the flow of information in such a way as to reach an
outcome that an honest process would not reach.
See http://www.eagleforum.org/educate/1998/nov98/focus.html for
a highly-critical but useful article highlighting how the
technique can be abused. Everyone about to engage in a Delphi
exercise should understand the points in this article before the
process starts, so that they can guard against these abuses.
Key Points
The Delphi Method is a structured approach to problem analysis
which makes sure that problems and proposed solutions are
thoroughly explored and examined.
By using a remote and anonymous approach, it avoids the problems
of groupthink and personality conflict that can lead to poor group
decision making. More than this, it allows the time for detailed
analysis and careful criticism that so often is not possible
within a group analysis and decision making process.
The process works through a number of cycles of anonymous written
discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator. The facilitator
controls the process, and manages the flow and consolidation of
information.
Tags:
Decision Making, Skills
together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.
This is particularly the case in areas such as resource allocation and
forecasting where the conclusion reached depends on a number of
subjective assessments.
In cases like these, arguments can quickly become passionate,
and disagreement can often become intensely personal and bitter.
More than this, in face-to-face discussion, situations of groupthink can occur. Here (for example) the eccentric views of
early or charismatic speakers can achieve undue prominence as the
group seeks to find consensus. This can lead to poor decision
making.
This is where a technique like the Delphi Method is needed to
reach a properly thought-through consensus among experts.
How to Use the Tool
The Delphi Method works through a number of cycles of anonymous
written discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator.
Participants in the process do not meet, or even necessarily know
who else is involved: the facilitator controls the process, and
manages the flow and consolidation of information.
The anonymity and remoteness of the process helps to avoid issues
of groupthink and personality conflict. More than this, it gives
people time to think issues through properly, critique arguments
rigorously and contribute fully.
The editing of responses by a facilitator means that inflammatory
interventions can be toned down and input can be consolidated
efficiently. And the iterative approach means that arguments can
be refined and tested until they are robust and fully-considered.
To use the technique, use the following steps:
Clearly define the problem to be solved.
Appoint a facilitator or chairperson with the skills and integrity
needed to manage the process properly and impartially (the rest of
this process assumes you are this person).
Select a panel of experts with the depth and breadth of knowledge,
and proven good judgment needed for effective analysis of the
problem.
Get individual panel members to brainstorm high level approaches
that might be used to solving the problem.
Consolidate responses, and iteratively resubmit these to the panel
until a stable and comprehensive list of approaches has been
developed.
Check with the process sponsor that all possible solutions to the
problem have been identified and that no approaches have been
missed.
Work with individual panel members to develop each of the possible
solutions to the problem.
Consolidate these possible solutions, and send them out to all
panel members.
Panel members then critique solutions, and feed their comments
back to the facilitator.
The facilitator and panel members refine proposals or, if
appropriate, discard them.
This goes on (iterating back to step 7) until a stable analysis of
options has been conducted and a final conclusion has been
reached.
Tip 1:
This is a time consuming technique and a lengthy process, and as
such should only be used for decisions with major consequences.
However, techniques like this are needed for large-scale
decisions: Without them there's firstly a real risk that the
wrong decision will be made and, secondly, even good decisions
can be undermined with misplaced criticism.
Tip 2:
As a facilitator, you'll speed the process by setting clear and
appropriate deadlines for feedback. However take care not to
give undue weight to early submissions – this is far too easy to
do!
Tip 3:
Beware: The Delphi Technique puts a huge amount of power in the
hands of the facilitator. A crooked or biased facilitator can
manipulate the flow of information in such a way as to reach an
outcome that an honest process would not reach.
See http://www.eagleforum.org/educate/1998/nov98/focus.html for
a highly-critical but useful article highlighting how the
technique can be abused. Everyone about to engage in a Delphi
exercise should understand the points in this article before the
process starts, so that they can guard against these abuses.
Key Points
The Delphi Method is a structured approach to problem analysis
which makes sure that problems and proposed solutions are
thoroughly explored and examined.
By using a remote and anonymous approach, it avoids the problems
of groupthink and personality conflict that can lead to poor group
decision making. More than this, it allows the time for detailed
analysis and careful criticism that so often is not possible
within a group analysis and decision making process.
The process works through a number of cycles of anonymous written
discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator. The facilitator
controls the process, and manages the flow and consolidation of
information.
